Indonesia is the world's largest thermal coal exporter, the largest CPO producer (~58–60% of world), the largest mined nickel supplier (~65% of world), and a meaningful gold producer with the Antam refinery and pergadaian-system as a structural retail sink. All four sit at stress points: Newcastle near $112 (off 2022 peak but holding the cost-curve floor), Rotterdam CPO at $950 (below the BPDPKS funding tier), LME nickel at $16,200 (with Indonesian supply still expanding), and LBMA gold at $3,050 (after the post-2022 central-bank-driven re-rating). This dashboard tracks where each sits, where the modal scenarios point, and the listed Indonesian read-through for an IDX value book.
idk/stress_test.md. The cross-asset linkage to idrtracker.com (IDR translation leg) and idxtracker.com (listed-name read-through) is the connective tissue — see IDX Linkage tab for the matrix.
Indonesia produces ~58% of world CPO and ~65% of mined nickel. Indonesian coal at $30–55/tonne cash cost sits in the lowest quartile globally. This makes Indonesian listed names defensive in low-price regimes (Bayan, ITMG, Harita HPAL stay cash-positive while Western majors curtail) — but caps upside in spike regimes (Indonesian supply ramps faster than Western, suppressing the price recovery). LME nickel cannot sustain $25,000 with Indonesian capacity adding 300–600kt/year. Newcastle cannot sustain $200 with Indonesian thermal export at 550mt/yr available.
Indonesian biodiesel mandate at B40 absorbs ~13–14 mt CPO/year from the export market. B50 transition adds 3–4 mt incremental. This is price-insensitive demand as long as BPDPKS levy funds the blender margin gap. Separately, central-bank gold buying has averaged ~1,030 tonnes/year for four years — the structural reason gold rose 75% despite rising real yields. Both are policy-driven, both are durable. The two are different commodities with the same structural bid mechanism: a buyer that doesn't care about price.
Global LFP share rose from ~30% to ~67% in five years. Every 5pp shift to LFP removes ~50–80kt Ni demand per year. Pre-2022 forecasts had nickel-EV demand at 600kt+ by 2026; actual is closer to 350–450kt. Wood Mackenzie, BloombergNEF, and most consultancies have walked their bull cases. The bullish counter is solid-state batteries (commercial 2028–2030) reverting to high-Ni, but that's an option, not a base case. Sit short of the consensus nickel bull case until LFP share inflects.
Under Prabowo, regulatory direction is to route strategic commodity exports through state-owned channels. Winners: PTBA (coal export via MIND ID), ANTM (nickel + gold under MIND ID), INCO (post-divestment), Pegadaian (gold-collateral scale), Pertamina (B40/B50 exclusive blending). Losers: private exporters (BUMI, Bayan, GEMS to some degree, private nickel intermediates). This is the asymmetric policy bet — see the IDX Linkage tab for sensitivity.
Newcastle 6,000 NAR sits at $112, down from the 2022 peak above $400 but defending the $100–115 range that has held for most of 2025–2026. The structural floor is cost-curve driven: Australian Tier-3 mines start cash-loss curtailing below $90, removing 30–60 mt/yr of marginal seaborne supply within 2–3 quarters. Indonesian thermal — the lowest-quartile producer globally at $30–55/tonne cash — remains profitable across the realistic range. The question is less "will coal crash" and more "where does it consolidate and which Indonesian name realizes most of the price into ASP."
Compounded from spot at +18% / +2% / −22% annualized for Bull / Base / Bear. Cost-curve floor ~$85–95, China-import-bust ceiling ~$135–145.
| Scenario | Drift / σ | Conditions required | Historical analog | P-weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | +18% / 28% | China NDRC quota tightening + India CIL stocks <15 days + Mideast LNG disruption + winter restocking | 2021 Q4 China shortage; 2022 Russia-Ukraine | 25–30% |
| Base | +2% / 22% | Range-bound $100–125, China stable importer, India CIL meets target, no policy shock, marginal Australian supply discipline holds | 2015–2019 mean-reversion regime | 50–55% |
| Bear | −22% / 32% | China hydro surge (wet year) + India coal stocks >25 days + Australian + Russian + Colombian seaborne all open + LNG price collapse + global recession | 2020 Q2 COVID; 2015 commodity crash | 18–22% |
| Threshold | Scenario | 6m | 12m | 24m | NEVER@12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80 −29% from $112 | Bull | 5% | 8% | 11% | 92% |
| Base | 12% | 19% | 28% | 81% | |
| Bear | 41% | 62% | 82% | 38% | |
| P-weighted | 15% | 23% | 33% | 77% | |
| $90 −20% from $112 · the load-bearing floor | Bull | 10% | 17% | 23% | 83% |
| Base | 22% | 33% | 44% | 67% | |
| Bear | 52% | 71% | 87% | 29% | |
| P-weighted | 22% | 32% | 43% | 68% | |
| $120 +7% from $112 | Bull | 63% | 79% | 92% | 21% |
| Base | 42% | 55% | 68% | 45% | |
| Bear | 17% | 22% | 27% | 78% | |
| P-weighted | 42% | 54% | 67% | 46% | |
| $135 +21% from $112 | Bull | 29% | 52% | 76% | 48% |
| Base | 11% | 22% | 38% | 78% | |
| Bear | 3% | 5% | 8% | 95% | |
| P-weighted | 15% | 27% | 44% | 73% |
| Benchmark | Quoted level | Relation to listed-name ASP |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle 6,000 NAR (ICE) | $112 | Global seaborne reference; only top-CV Indonesian (Bayan Tabang premium, ITMG Indominco) realizes close to this level. |
| ICI-1 (6,500 GAR / ~6,200 NAR) | $104 | Premium Indonesian. ITMG, HRUM benchmark. |
| ICI-2 (5,800 GAR) | $85 | Mid-CV — ADRO, parts of BUMI. |
| ICI-3 (5,000 GAR) | $66 | PTBA workhorse benchmark; Indonesian export workhorse grade. |
| ICI-4 (4,200 GAR) | $48 | Low-CV, India / China blending — Bayan Tabang sleeve, BUMI Arutmin. |
| HBA (ministerial reference) | $118.5 | May 2026 gazette. Lags spot ~30d. Sets DMO cap and royalty tier. |
| Ticker | RKAB mt | Cash cost $/t | ASP realized $/t | Term mix | DMO drag | FV sensitivity per $5/t | Beta to NEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTBA (BUMN) | ~40 | 35–45 | $55–75 | ~70% | High | +Rp 75/sh | 0.30–0.50 |
| ITMG (Banpu) | ~22 | 40–55 | $70–95 | ~50% | Moderate | +Rp 220/sh | 0.55–0.75 |
| ADRO (split entity) | ~65 + 5 met | 40–55 | $65–85 | ~60% | Moderate | +Rp 95/sh | 0.50–0.70 |
| HRUM (coal sleeve) | ~5 coal | 40–50 | $75–95 | Spot | Low | +Rp 55/sh | 0.60–0.85 |
| BUMI (Bakrie / Salim) | ~75 (KPC+Arutmin) | 38–52 | $50–70 | ~70% | High | +Rp 18/sh | 0.70–1.00 |
| BYAN (Bayan) | ~55 | 30–40 | $60–80 | ~60% | Moderate | +Rp 480/sh | 0.50–0.70 |
| INDY (Indika) | ~33 | 40–55 | $55–75 | ~60% | Moderate | +Rp 65/sh | 0.55–0.75 |
| GEMS (Sinar Mas) | ~40 | 42–58 | $50–70 | ~70% | Moderate | +Rp 70/sh | 0.45–0.65 |
| HBA reference band | Royalty rate | Effective on listed names |
|---|---|---|
| < $70/t | 8% | Cyclical trough; rarely reached in modern regime. |
| $70–80 | 10% | Bear-case band. |
| $80–90 | 11.5% | Marginal-supply zone. |
| $90–100 | 12.5% | Base-case band. |
| $100–125 (current at $118.5 HBA) | 13.0% | Where the market is now. |
| > $125 | 13.5% | Bull-case band; structural EBITDA cap kicks in. |
China is the swing buyer. Import economics flow:
(Newcastle FOB + freight) × USD/CNY vs CCI 5,500 RMB delivered coastal
When the seaborne–domestic gap favours imports by +$8/t, expect rising Chinese arrivals next month. When gap turns −$5 against imports, expect falling Chinese demand. Currently: roughly balanced; arb supports current Newcastle range.
NDRC policy moves are announcements, not gradual. Quota-on (current), quota-off, hydro-led suppression, environmental restrictions on small mines — all create gap moves. Watch the NDRC weekly statements more than the price tape.
Indian Coal India (CIL) stocks at power plants is the cleanest tactical signal. Reported weekly by Central Electricity Authority (CEA):
India primarily buys ICI-4 (low-CV) for blending — direct competitor: South African RB1. Indonesian listed names with low-CV bias (BUMI Arutmin, Bayan Tabang) benefit most from Indian demand inflection.
Rotterdam CIF CPO sits at $950, below the $1,000 BPDPKS levy threshold ($90/t levy applies in $900–1,000 band) and meaningfully below the $1,150+ super-cycle level that triggered the 2022 cash flow. MPOB April stocks at 2.04 mt sit between the 1.6 mt bullish and 2.2 mt bearish thresholds — the market has no clean directional signal from inventory. The decisive variables are (a) B40/B50 execution (~13–14 mt CPO absorbed via biodiesel mandate), (b) Indian + Chinese physical demand, and (c) EUDR compliance premium (~$40–100/t for certified tonnage). For Indonesian listed planters, the ASP realization gap from Rotterdam to plantation gate runs $150–250/tonne — that gap is where the alpha lives.
Compounded from spot at +14% / +4% / −18% annualized for Bull / Base / Bear. Floor ~$750 cash-cost stress; ceiling ~$1,200 super-cycle.
| Scenario | Drift / σ | Conditions required | Historical analog | P-weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | +14% / 24% | El Niño-stressed yields · India duty cut · B50 ramp executes · soybean spread widens · MPOB stocks draw below 1.6mt | 2022 super-cycle, 2008 spike | 28–35% |
| Base | +4% / 20% | Range-bound $900–1,050, B40 holds, MPOB stocks 1.7–2.1 mt, India + China steady buyers, levy tier stable at $90/t | 2015–2019 mid-cycle | 45–50% |
| Bear | −18% / 28% | La Niña yield surge · BPDPKS depletes & mandate stalls · India duty up · Brent collapse breaks biodiesel arb · soybean glut | 2018–2019 low ($550), 2015 trough | 18–22% |
| Threshold | Scenario | 6m | 12m | 24m | NEVER@12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $750 −21% from $950 · marginal-cost stress | Bull | 4% | 7% | 10% | 93% |
| Base | 11% | 18% | 26% | 82% | |
| Bear | 38% | 58% | 78% | 42% | |
| P-weighted | 13% | 21% | 30% | 79% | |
| $850 −11% from $950 | Bull | 15% | 24% | 31% | 76% |
| Base | 26% | 38% | 49% | 62% | |
| Bear | 53% | 72% | 87% | 28% | |
| P-weighted | 26% | 38% | 50% | 62% | |
| $1,000 +5% from $950 · the recovery floor | Bull | 68% | 82% | 93% | 18% |
| Base | 53% | 68% | 80% | 32% | |
| Bear | 28% | 36% | 44% | 64% | |
| P-weighted | 53% | 71% | 78% | 29% | |
| $1,150 +21% from $950 | Bull | 22% | 42% | 66% | 58% |
| Base | 8% | 17% | 30% | 83% | |
| Bear | 2% | 4% | 6% | 96% | |
| P-weighted | 11% | 22% | 37% | 77% |
| Status | Annual CPO offtake | Levy band currently applied | BPDPKS funding requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| B40 operational since 2024 | ~13–14 mt/yr | $90/t at HRPO $900–1,000 | Funded — current Brent–CPO arb supports. |
| B50 transition 2026 | +3–4 mt incremental | Same tier applies | Watch quarterly fund balance — depletion risk if Brent < $60 sustained. |
| BPDPKS levy schedule | $0 below $750 HRPO · $20 at $750–800 · $50 at $800–900 · $90 at $900–1,000 · $200 above $1,000 — combined with bea keluar tier | ||
| Ticker | Planted ha (k) | CPO production (kt) | Integration | EUDR/RSPO | FV sensitivity per $25/t | Beta to CPO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AALI (Astra Agro) | ~287 | ~1,700 | Integrated refining + retail | RSPO high · EUDR-positioned | +Rp 380/sh | 0.45–0.65 |
| LSIP (Indofood) | ~115 | ~430 | Pure upstream | RSPO partial | +Rp 65/sh | 0.55–0.75 |
| SIMP (Indofood) | ~245 | ~1,000 | Integrated + Bimoli retail | RSPO partial | +Rp 18/sh | 0.35–0.55 |
| DSNG | ~118 | ~600 | Higher growth, spot-tilt | RSPO partial | +Rp 85/sh | 0.65–0.85 |
| SSMS | ~95 | ~500 | Pure upstream, mature | RSPO full · EUDR leader | +Rp 95/sh | 0.65–0.80 |
| TAPG | ~85 | ~430 | Growth, listed 2021 | RSPO partial | +Rp 60/sh | 0.60–0.80 |
| SGRO | ~80 | ~400 | Mid-cap | RSPO partial | +Rp 55/sh | 0.50–0.70 |
| BWPT | ~135 | ~520 | Higher leverage | RSPO partial | +Rp 12/sh | 0.70–0.95 |
LME 3M Class 1 nickel sits at $16,200, defending the $14,000–18,000 corridor that has held through 2025–2026. The structural cap is Indonesian supply: from 600kt contained Ni in 2020 to ~2.4mt in 2026 (4x ramp in six years), Indonesia is now ~65% of world mined Ni. Indonesian RKEF cash cost at $9,500–12,000/t contained Ni sits in the lowest decile globally, which is why the LME cannot collapse below the $13,000–14,000 floor — Western marginal supply curtails first. The structural drag is LFP: global LFP cathode share rose from ~30% to ~67% in five years, removing the EV demand story the 2021 forecasters built into models. The result: range-bound nickel, with Indonesia setting both the floor and the ceiling.
Compounded from spot at +22% / −3% / −25% annualized for Bull / Base / Bear. Floor ~$13,000–14,000 RKEF cash; ceiling ~$22,000 supply-disruption.
| Scenario | Drift / σ | Conditions required | Historical analog | P-weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | +22% / 32% | Indonesian smelter ramp slows (ore-quality constraints) · stainless demand inflects · solid-state Ni revival signal · LME stock cancellations rise · disruption at IMIP/IWIP | 2022 Tsingshan squeeze; 2020 post-COVID | 22–28% |
| Base | −3% / 28% | Range-bound $14k–18k, Indonesian capacity adds 300–500kt/yr through 2027, LFP share rises modestly, stainless demand muddles, NPI discount steady 8–12% | 2023–2024 consolidation | 50–55% |
| Bear | −25% / 38% | Indonesian supply over-runs forecast (500kt+/yr capacity) · LFP share >75% · China stainless demand collapse · Eramet/Vale/INCO push tonnes regardless · LME inventory rebuild >250kt | 2015 trough, 2019 pre-Tsingshan | 20–25% |
| Threshold | Scenario | 6m | 12m | 24m | NEVER@12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12,500 −23% from $16,200 · sub-marginal | Bull | 5% | 9% | 13% | 91% |
| Base | 17% | 26% | 36% | 74% | |
| Bear | 44% | 62% | 80% | 38% | |
| P-weighted | 19% | 29% | 40% | 71% | |
| $14,000 −14% from $16,200 · the load-bearing floor | Bull | 13% | 21% | 29% | 79% |
| Base | 32% | 46% | 58% | 54% | |
| Bear | 58% | 76% | 90% | 24% | |
| P-weighted | 33% | 48% | 60% | 52% | |
| $18,000 +11% from $16,200 | Bull | 52% | 69% | 84% | 31% |
| Base | 30% | 42% | 52% | 58% | |
| Bear | 12% | 17% | 22% | 83% | |
| P-weighted | 30% | 41% | 51% | 59% | |
| $21,000 +30% from $16,200 | Bull | 18% | 36% | 60% | 64% |
| Base | 5% | 12% | 23% | 88% | |
| Bear | 1% | 3% | 5% | 97% | |
| P-weighted | 7% | 16% | 29% | 83% |
| Year | Indonesia Ni (kt) | World total (kt) | Indonesia share | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 580 | 2,300 | 25% | Pre-export-ban policy era |
| 2020 | 760 | 2,500 | 30% | Ban operational; smelter buildout begins |
| 2022 | 1,580 | 3,150 | 50% | Tsingshan IMIP/IWIP scale; LME squeeze year |
| 2024 | 2,100 | 3,400 | 62% | HPAL cluster ramps (Harita Obi, MBMA) |
| 2026E | 2,400 | 3,700 | 65% | Current — capacity adds 300–600kt/yr continuing |
| 2028E | ~2,800 | ~4,000 | ~70% | Forecast — ore-quality constraint by ~2030 |
| Ticker | Product | Capacity (kt Ni) | Cash cost $/t | LME pass-through | FV sensitivity per $1,000/t | Beta to LME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCO (Vale Indonesia) | High-Ni matte (~75%) | ~65–75 | $10,500–13,000 | ~82% (matte payable) | +Rp 480/sh | 0.60–0.85 |
| ANTM (BUMN) | FeNi + ore + gold + bauxite | ~25 FeNi | $11,000–14,000 | ~75% (FeNi) | +Rp 65/sh | 0.35–0.55 |
| MDKA (multi-commodity) | Au + Cu + Ni (via MBMA) | via 49% MBMA | blended | ~70% blended | +Rp 95/sh | 0.20–0.30 |
| MBMA (Merdeka Battery) | RKEF NPI + HPAL MHP | ~120 + HPAL adds | $9,500–12,000 | ~88% spot | +Rp 165/sh | 0.70–0.95 |
| NCKL (Harita) | Integrated mine + RKEF + HPAL | ~120 MHP + RKEF | $9,000–11,500 | ~85% spot | +Rp 110/sh | 0.65–0.90 |
| HRUM (nickel sleeve) | NPI JVs with Chinese smelters | ~30 effective | $10,000–13,000 | ~80% NPI-linked | +Rp 55/sh | 0.55–0.80 |
| NICL (PAM Mineral) | Ore + intermediate | small | n/a | volume-driven | +Rp 15/sh | 0.35–0.55 |
| DKFT | Ore + intermediate | small | n/a | volume-driven | +Rp 12/sh | 0.30–0.50 |
| Cathode | Ni content | EV share 2024 | EV share 2026E | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LFP (LiFePO4) | 0% | 55–60% | 65–70% | Removes ~50–80kt Ni demand per 5pp shift. Structural cap. |
| NCM 811 (high-Ni) | ~80% | 18–22% | 12–15% | Premium / long-range tier; declining share. |
| NCM 622/532 | 60–66% | 15–18% | 12–15% | Mid-tier; squeezed. |
| NCA | 80–85% | 5–7% | 3–5% | Tesla; declining as LFP takes share. |
| LMFP / others | mostly 0 | 1–2% | 5–8% | Mostly Ni-free; rising rapidly. |
LBMA PM Fix at $3,050/oz, after the 2022–2025 re-rating from ~$1,700 that broke the historic real-yield-as-master-variable model. The driver was record central-bank net buying (~1,030 tonnes/yr four-year average led by PBoC, RBI, NBP) which placed price-insensitive demand under the market through the 2022–2024 real-yield headwind. The structural question for 2026 is whether this central-bank cycle exhausts as Chinese and Indian reserve targets are met, or extends as additional EM central banks join the de-dollarization trade. For Indonesia, gold is the cleanest cross-cutting story: Antam refinery + Pegadaian (gold-collateral lending) form a structural retail demand sink that grew double-digit per year through the rally.
Compounded from spot at +18% / +6% / −15% annualized for Bull / Base / Bear. Real-yield model anchor with CB-buying overlay.
| Scenario | Drift / σ | Conditions required | Historical analog | P-weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | +18% / 16% | Fed cuts more than priced (TIPS < 1%) · CB net buying > 1,200 t · Mideast / Asia geopolitical shock · DXY breaks 95 · India + China physical strong | 2019–2020 rally, 2024–2025 continuation | 35–40% |
| Base | +6% / 14% | Real yields range-bound 1.5–2.2% · CB net buying 800–1,100 t · ETF flows stable · physical Asia steady · no major geopolitical shock | 2024 H2 consolidation | 45–50% |
| Bear | −15% / 22% | Real yields break 2.5%+ · CB buying decelerates to <500 t (PBoC pause) · DXY rallies above 110 · ETF outflows persistent · Fed hawkish surprise | 2013 taper tantrum, 2015 disinflation | 12–18% |
| Threshold | Scenario | 6m | 12m | 24m | NEVER@12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2,500 −18% from $3,050 · pre-rally level | Bull | 2% | 4% | 6% | 96% |
| Base | 7% | 12% | 19% | 88% | |
| Bear | 31% | 49% | 70% | 51% | |
| P-weighted | 7% | 12% | 19% | 88% | |
| $2,800 −8% from $3,050 · the load-bearing floor | Bull | 8% | 13% | 19% | 87% |
| Base | 18% | 28% | 39% | 72% | |
| Bear | 48% | 66% | 83% | 34% | |
| P-weighted | 17% | 27% | 38% | 73% | |
| $3,300 +8% from $3,050 | Bull | 62% | 81% | 95% | 19% |
| Base | 38% | 54% | 70% | 46% | |
| Bear | 11% | 17% | 25% | 83% | |
| P-weighted | 41% | 58% | 72% | 43% | |
| $3,600 +18% from $3,050 | Bull | 22% | 47% | 76% | 53% |
| Base | 7% | 18% | 33% | 82% | |
| Bear | 1% | 2% | 5% | 98% | |
| P-weighted | 12% | 26% | 45% | 74% |
| Central bank | 2022–2024 avg t/yr | Motivation | Continuation signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| PBoC (China) | 200–250 | Reserve diversification, de-dollarisation, geopolitical hedge | Opaque; IMF IFS reports with lag. Watch for pause signal. |
| NBP (Poland) | 100–130 | EU-East reserve diversification | Stated target met ~2025; pace may slow. |
| RBI (India) | 50–80 | Steady accumulation, diversification | Programme continues. |
| CBR (Russia) | 30–50 | Sanction-proofing | Less transparent post-2022. |
| TCMB (Türkiye) | 50–150 (volatile) | Inflation-fighting reserve cover | Internal political swing variable. |
| MAS (Singapore) | 50–80 | Reserve diversification | Continues. |
| Bank Indonesia (BI) | 5–15 | Steady, small. Total holding ~78 t (modest globally). | Stable. Possible step-up under reserve-target review. |
| Ticker | Asset | Production koz Au/yr | AISC $/oz | Hedge book | FV sensitivity per $100/oz | Beta to LBMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDKA (Merdeka) | Tujuh Bukit (E. Java) | ~120–160 | $900–1,250 | Partial forward sales | +Rp 95/sh | 0.30–0.50 |
| ANTM (gold sleeve) | Pongkor + Cibaliung + Logam Mulia refinery | ~90–130 | $1,100–1,400 | Limited | +Rp 60/sh | 0.35–0.55 |
| ARCI (Archi) | Toka Tindung (N. Sulawesi) | ~150–180 | $1,100–1,400 | Unhedged | +Rp 35/sh | 0.65–0.90 |
| PSAB (J Resources) | Bakan + Seruyung | ~100–140 | $1,150–1,450 | Partial | +Rp 28/sh | 0.50–0.75 |
| HBD (Hartadinata) | Jewelry retail + pergadaian sleeve | — (retail) | — (spread story) | n/a | +Rp 18/sh | 0.40–0.65 |
| DEWA | Mining services (volume beta) | — | — | n/a | +Rp 8/sh | 0.15–0.30 |
PT Aneka Tambang's Logam Mulia refinery is Indonesia's only major LBMA Good Delivery accredited refinery. Antam-branded bars carry premium over LBMA spot (IDR-converted):
1g bar: ~10–12%
5g bar: ~6–8%
25g bar: ~5–6%
100g bar: ~3–4%
1kg bar: ~2–3%
Digital-gold apps (Pluang, Treasury, IndoGold, Tabungan Emas Pegadaian) now offer near-LBMA institutional pricing for storage. Total digital-gold AUM ~Rp 8–12 tn (2025). This compresses the small-bar Antam premium at the retail end and is incremental physical demand on the institutional channel.
Gold +10%: collateral revaluation gain on outstanding book (mark-to-market). LTV cushion increases. Larger ticket per gram on new loans. Lelang recovery values +~10%. NPL probability falls.
Gold −10% (gradual): LTV cushion erodes but typically manageable. Some customers under-water at maturity; modest lelang shortfalls.
Gold −10% (sudden, <1 month): stress event. LTV-breach loans crystallize. Larger lelang shortfalls. Historical references: 2013 gold crash, 2020 March crash.
Pergadaian sector grows 5–15% YoY in volume when gold rallies; still grows at slower pace when flat/falling on customer adoption + branch density. HBD is the closest listed proxy for the gold-collateral lending business model.
This tab is the connective tissue between idktracker.com (commodity prices) and idxtracker.com (listed Indonesian equity). For a value book holding PTBA, ITMG, AALI, INCO, ANTM, MDKA, etc., the question is: given a commodity scenario, what does each name's fair value do? The matrix below answers that across all four commodities × bull / base / bear scenarios × the full listed roster. Pass-through lag, ASP realization, and FX translation are baked in.
| Name | COAL | CPO | NICKEL | GOLD | Bull case FV uplift | Bear case FV downside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTBA | Primary | — | — | — | +22% | −18% |
| ITMG | Primary | — | — | — | +38% | −28% |
| ADRO | Primary + met sleeve | — | — | — | +30% | −24% |
| HRUM | Sleeve (declining) | — | Primary (growing) | — | +42% | −32% |
| BUMI | Primary (high leverage) | — | — | — | +58% | −42% |
| BYAN | Primary (lowest cost) | — | — | — | +35% | −22% |
| INDY | Primary + diversification | — | — | Awak Mas project | +28% | −22% |
| GEMS | Primary | — | — | — | +24% | −20% |
| AALI | — | Primary integrated | — | — | +26% | −21% |
| LSIP | — | Pure upstream | — | — | +34% | −26% |
| SIMP | — | Integrated + Bimoli | — | — | +18% | −14% |
| DSNG | — | Spot-tilt | — | — | +40% | −30% |
| SSMS | — | Certified premium | — | — | +38% | −27% |
| TAPG | — | Growth profile | — | — | +36% | −28% |
| INCO | — | — | Primary (matte) | — | +32% | −25% |
| ANTM | — | — | FeNi (~40% EBITDA) | Gold sleeve + Logam Mulia (~35%) | +30% | −22% |
| MDKA | — | — | via MBMA | Tujuh Bukit + Cu sleeve | +33% | −24% |
| MBMA | — | — | Pure-play battery | — | +48% | −36% |
| NCKL | — | — | Integrated Obi Island | — | +42% | −32% |
| ARCI | — | — | — | Pure-play unhedged | +30% | −22% |
| PSAB | — | — | — | Bakan + Seruyung | +22% | −18% |
| Bull case = bull scenario for the primary commodity. Bear case = bear scenario for the primary commodity. Multi-commodity names blend by EBITDA mix. | ||||||
| Name cluster | Typical lag | Why |
|---|---|---|
| PTBA, ADRO, BUMI | 4–8 weeks | Heavy term-contract mix; quarterly avg HBA-linked pricing for power coal |
| ITMG, HRUM, Bayan | 1–3 weeks | More spot exposure; thinner term-contract book |
| INCO | 2–4 weeks | LME-linked transfer pricing to Vale plc, monthly-average reference |
| ANTM | 3–5 weeks | Mixed contract mix across FeNi, gold refining, ore |
| AALI, LSIP, SIMP | 1–3 weeks | Indonesian FOB exposure; less term contracts than coal/nickel |
| MDKA / MBMA / NCKL | 2–4 weeks | Each commodity sleeve has its own lag; MHP cobalt-credit re-rating quarterly |
| ARCI, PSAB | 1–3 weeks | Unhedged gold pure-play; near-spot pass-through |
| USD/IDR 12m | Scenario | Coal IDR EBITDA Δ | CPO IDR EBITDA Δ | Nickel IDR EBITDA Δ | Gold IDR EBITDA Δ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17,000 | IDR Bull | −4% | −4% | −4% | −4% | IDR strength dilutes USD-revenue translation for all four |
| 18,000 | IDR mild bear | +1% | +1% | +1% | +1% | Flat to small benefit |
| 19,000 | IDR Base | +7% | +7% | +7% | +7% | Translation tailwind across the board |
| 20,000 | IDR Bear | +13% | +13% | +13% | +13% | FX translation tailwind significant — but only if IDR isn't dragging IHSG/sentiment |
| Approximate; assumes USD revenue ratio is 100% (true for coal, nickel, gold pure-plays; 80–90% for CPO due to domestic offtake; lower for refining-integrated names like SIMP). Cost base is partially USD-linked (fuel, fertilizer for CPO; capex amortization across all) — IDR weakness benefit erodes ~20–35% via cost inflation lag. | ||||||
| View | Structure | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Long coal, neutralize IHSG beta | Long PTBA / short BBRI (or ASII) | Strips IHSG beta, keeps coal alpha |
| Long coal, prefer lowest-cost | Long Bayan or HRUM / short BUMI | Cost-curve advantage in low-price regime |
| Long Indonesian nickel exposure, hedge LME | Long NCKL or MBMA / short LME nickel futures | Captures Indonesian cost-advantage spread; NPI discount fluctuates |
| Long gold via Indonesia equity | MDKA + ARCI basket (+ HBD if listed) | Cleanest listed gold exposure; pergadaian secondary beta |
| Long CPO, capture certified premium | Long SSMS or AALI / short BWPT | EUDR compliance leadership vs laggard |
| BUMN sole-exporter thesis | Long PTBA + ANTM + INCO / short BUMI + Bayan basket | Policy direction trade |
| Multi-commodity / lower correlation | Long MDKA (Au + Cu + Ni blended) | Diversified single-name commodity exposure |
A defensible thesis names what would invalidate it. This tab is the mind-change scorecard — the specific, observable indicators that would force probability mass to shift on each of the four commodity calls. It also documents which of the dashboard's load-bearing claims survived the six-skill audit, which were weakened, and which were strengthened. Full audit walkthrough lives in idk/stress_test.md (authored separately).
quarterly-tracker-audit scheduled task. Until then, the structures below represent the pre-audit build; weights, drifts, and decompositions are subject to revision per the methodology in TRACKER_AUDIT_METHODOLOGY.md.
| Original claim | Audit verdict | Source skill |
|---|---|---|
| Coal Bull/Base/Bear: +18% / +2% / −22%; weights 27.5 / 52.5 / 20% | Pending audit — see idk/stress_test.md | em-crisis-historian + bayesian-em-forecaster |
| CPO Bull/Base/Bear: +14% / +4% / −18%; weights 31.5 / 47.5 / 21% | Pending audit | commodity-fundamental-analyst + B40/B50 cross-check |
| Nickel Bull/Base/Bear: +22% / −3% / −25%; weights 25 / 52.5 / 22.5% | Pending audit | commodity-fundamental-analyst + hilirisasi-policy |
| Gold Bull/Base/Bear: +18% / +6% / −15%; weights 37.5 / 47.5 / 15% | Pending audit | em-crisis-historian + central-bank-statement-decoder |
| "Indonesian RKEF cash cost $9,500–12,000/t contained Ni" | Pending — verify Wood Mackenzie current | nickel-indonesia-context |
| "Coal cost-curve floor $85–95" | Pending — verify Australian Tier-3 curtailment threshold | coal-indonesia-context |
| "B40/B50 absorbs ~13–14mt CPO/yr" | Pending — verify BPDPKS quarterly | cpo-palm-oil-context |
| "CB gold buying ~1,030 t/yr 4-year avg" | Pending — verify WGC Q1 2026 release | gold-bullion-context |
| Commodity | Bear path 1 (continuous drift) | Bear path 2 (tail risk) | Combined weighted bear drift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | China hydro surge + India CIL meets target = gradual −15% over 12m | Global recession + LNG collapse = step-down to $75 in <3m (~6% prob) | −22% (current build) |
| CPO | La Niña yields up + soybean glut = gradual −12% over 12m | BPDPKS depletes + B40 stall = step-down to $700 (~4% prob) | −18% (current build) |
| Nickel | Indonesian capacity overruns + LFP share >75% = grind to $13k over 12m | China stainless demand collapse + LME stock dump (~3% prob) | −25% (current build) |
| Gold | PBoC pause + real yields normalize = gradual −10% drift | DXY mega-rally + Fed hawkish surprise = −18% in <2m (~3% prob) | −15% (current build) |
Indian per-capita electricity consumption is ~1,300 kWh — vs China ~5,500, vs OECD ~8,000+. Indian power demand is on a 6–8% pa structural rise driven by AC penetration, rural electrification (Saubhagya), and EV charging. Coal India cannot meet incremental demand alone. Indonesian low-CV (ICI-4) is the dominant import grade.
Separate strategic leg: LNG–coal switching. Coal beat LNG on cost-per-MWh for ~70% of the period since 2022 in Asian markets. Until Indian LNG infra scales (still 5+ years away from full coverage), Indonesian thermal is the strategic backstop. 5-year Newcastle anchor: $90–125 range with low probability of structural collapse below $80.
B50 transitioning takes ~3–4 mt incremental CPO out of export to biodiesel. If B60 enters the policy discussion (Indonesia public commentary supports), another 3–4 mt removes. Combined, this is ~20 mt of structural Indonesian demand that wasn't there in 2018 — at ~25% of world production.
The EUDR-compliant premium widens as enforcement matures. Compliant operators (SSMS, AALI, Wilmar, GAR) consolidate share; smallholder tonnage stresses. 5-year Rotterdam anchor: $950–1,150 range with B50 the load-bearing driver.
Solid-state batteries (commercial 2028–2030) revert to high-Ni chemistry. Toyota / QuantumScape / Samsung SDI / BMW have publicly committed roadmaps. If solid-state ramps as forecast, EV nickel demand recovers to the 600kt+ range by 2030.
Separately, Indonesian smelter buildout slows post-2028 as ore quality declines. The combination — flat-to-rising demand from solid-state + slowing supply growth — could re-tighten the market by 2029–2030. 5-year LME anchor: $15,000–22,000 range with structural floor rising as cost curve consolidates around the Indonesian cluster.
The 2022–2025 central-bank gold buying cycle is the visible part of a 20-year reserve-diversification shift. Emerging Asian central banks (Indonesia ~78t, India ~880t, Thailand ~244t, Vietnam ~10t) all sit below 5% reserve allocation to gold — vs European EM peers at 12–25%. Indonesia could step gold reserve allocation from 5% to 10% over 5 years, adding ~10t/yr structural buying.
Separately, Asian retail demand (jewelry + digital gold apps) grows with middle-class consumption. 5-year LBMA anchor: $3,000–4,200 range with structural floor rising as reserve-target accumulation continues. Pergadaian sector grows volume 8–12% pa structurally.
| Commodity | Trigger | Watch source | Bull Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| COAL | China NDRC announces 2026 import quota tightening | NDRC weekly statements | +5–8pp |
| COAL | India CIL stocks drop below 15 days | CEA weekly | +4–6pp |
| CPO | MPOB stocks draw below 1.6mt | MPOB monthly | +5–7pp |
| CPO | India duty cut on CPO > 5pp | Indian budget / surprise | +4–6pp |
| NICKEL | Indonesian RKEF smelter delay or curtailment (IMIP/IWIP) | Tsingshan / Eramet press | +5–8pp |
| NICKEL | Solid-state battery commercial timeline accelerates | Toyota / QuantumScape press | +4–6pp |
| GOLD | Fed delivers more cuts than priced | FOMC dot plot | +5–8pp |
| GOLD | CB buying > 1,200t for two consecutive quarters | WGC quarterly | +3–5pp |
| Commodity | Trigger | Watch source | Bear Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| COAL | China hydro output +15% YoY (wet year) | NEA / CEC monthly | +5–7pp |
| COAL | EU CBAM passes accelerated timeline | EU Council readout | +3–5pp |
| CPO | BPDPKS depletion + B40 mandate stall | BPDPKS quarterly | +6–9pp |
| CPO | Brent breaks $55 sustained 60 days | ICE Brent | +4–6pp |
| NICKEL | LFP global EV share exceeds 75% in 1 quarter | CATL / BYD disclosures + BNEF | +6–8pp |
| NICKEL | LME nickel stocks rebuild >250kt | LME warehouse stocks | +4–6pp |
| GOLD | PBoC pauses gold buying (two consecutive quarters) | WGC + IMF IFS | +5–8pp |
| GOLD | 10Y TIPS breaks 2.5% sustained 30 days | US Treasury | +5–7pp |
| Metric | Pre-audit (current) | Post-audit (TBD) |
|---|---|---|
| P-weighted 12m Newcastle | $114 | — see stress_test.md — |
| P-weighted 12m Rotterdam CPO | $985 | — |
| P-weighted 12m LME nickel | $15,750 | — |
| P-weighted 12m LBMA gold | $3,200 | — |
| Coal bull/base/bear weights | 27.5 / 52.5 / 20% | — |
| CPO bull/base/bear weights | 31.5 / 47.5 / 21% | — |
| Nickel bull/base/bear weights | 25 / 52.5 / 22.5% | — |
| Gold bull/base/bear weights | 37.5 / 47.5 / 15% | — |
Tracker/idk/stress_test.md. Universal framework: Tracker/TRACKER_AUDIT_METHODOLOGY.md.
The bull case for the four Indonesia commodities is layered: tactical (90-day catalyst stacking that can fire in any of the four contracts within current scenarios) and strategic (5-year structural anchor per commodity). Probability mass on the tactical bull case sits 25–40% depending on commodity. The strategic case is closer to a directional anchor: the structural drivers (India electrification, B50, solid-state, CB de-dollarization) are durable forces that may take longer than 12 months to fully play out but compound at attractive rates.
Catalyst 1: China NDRC import quota relaxation. NDRC sets quota policy; relaxation announcements typically trigger 30–50 mt incremental seaborne demand within one quarter. Watch: NDRC weekly statements, large Chinese utility long-term-contract reviews.
Catalyst 2: India CIL stocks < 15 days. CEA weekly publishes power-plant stock days. Sub-15 = India scrambles seaborne. Indian peak demand season Apr–Jun.
Catalyst 3: Winter restocking + Mideast LNG disruption. Northern Hemisphere Q4 winter + any LNG supply shock pushes coal-gas switching toward coal at the margin. Implied path: $112 → $130–140 within 60–90 days; PTBA / ITMG / ADRO +15–25%, BUMI +25–35%, Bayan / HRUM coal sleeve +18–28%.
Catalyst 1: MPOB stocks draw below 1.6mt. The monthly bulletin is the trade. A sub-1.6 print combined with rising Lunar New Year demand triggers $50–100/t price spike.
Catalyst 2: B50 implementation accelerates. Each 5pp mandate step absorbs ~1.0–1.3 mt/yr CPO. If Pertamina announces B50 operational in Q3 2026, ~3–4 mt incremental annual offtake removes the surplus risk.
Catalyst 3: India duty cut on CPO ≥ 5pp. Indian budget season Feb-March, plus monsoon-stress windows. A duty cut directly raises Indonesian / Malaysian export economics. Implied path: $950 → $1,100–1,150 within 90 days; AALI / SSMS +20–30%, DSNG / TAPG +25–35%, LSIP / BWPT +30–40%.
Catalyst 1: Indonesian smelter delay or curtailment. Tsingshan, Eramet, Huayou announcements of ramp delays at IMIP/IWIP. Each 100kt deferred capacity → ~$1,000–1,500 LME upside.
Catalyst 2: LME stock cancellations spike > 15% of total stocks. Physical demand signal. Watch Singapore, Gwangyang, Port Klang warehouses.
Catalyst 3: Solid-state battery commercial timeline accelerates. Toyota / QuantumScape / Samsung SDI confirming 2028 commercial production resets EV-nickel-demand forecast +20–40%. Implied path: $16,200 → $18,500–20,000 within 90 days; INCO +20–30%, MBMA / NCKL +30–45%, HRUM nickel sleeve +25–35%.
Catalyst 1: Fed delivers more cuts than priced. Each 25bp surprise cut typically adds $40–80/oz. The dot-plot inflection is the leverage point.
Catalyst 2: CB buying > 1,200t for the quarter (WGC release). Most recent quarter ended ~270t official-sector; a 350t+ print would re-confirm the structural bid.
Catalyst 3: Geopolitical shock — Mideast or Asia. Each material escalation typically adds $50–150/oz in pulse before mean-reverting in 2–4 weeks if real yields don't confirm. Implied path: $3,050 → $3,400–3,600 within 90 days; MDKA +12–20%, ARCI +20–30%, ANTM gold sleeve +12–18%, pergadaian sector volume +5–10%.
Indian per-capita electricity at 1,300 kWh vs OECD 8,000+. Power demand on 6–8% pa structural rise. Coal India cannot meet incremental demand alone. Indonesian low-CV (ICI-4) is the dominant import grade.
LNG–coal switching favours coal until Indian LNG infrastructure scales (5+ years). 5-year Newcastle anchor: $90–125 range.
B50 takes 3–4 mt incremental CPO out of export. If B60 enters policy discussion (Indonesia public commentary supports), another 3–4 mt removes. Combined ~20 mt of structural Indonesian biodiesel demand.
EUDR premium widens; compliant operators (SSMS, AALI, Wilmar, GAR) consolidate. 5-year Rotterdam anchor: $950–1,150.
Solid-state batteries (2028–2030) revert to high-Ni chemistry. Toyota / QuantumScape / Samsung SDI / BMW have public roadmaps. Indonesian capacity ramp slows post-2028 as ore quality declines.
Combined: flat-rising demand + slowing supply = market re-tightens 2029–2030. 5-year LME anchor: $15,000–22,000.
Emerging Asian CBs (Indonesia 78t, India 880t, Thailand 244t) all <5% reserve allocation to gold vs EU-East 12–25%. Step-up to 8–10% over 5 years adds ~50–80t/yr structural buying.
Asian retail demand (jewelry + digital apps + pergadaian) grows 8–12% pa. 5-year LBMA anchor: $3,000–4,200.
Indonesia's commodity complex sits at a structural inflection: coal in the post-super-cycle consolidation, CPO range-bound below recovery, nickel structurally capped by Indonesian supply, gold elevated on a central-bank tailwind. The probability-weighted central tendency is roughly flat-to-modestly-down on the three industrial commodities and modestly-up on gold. The strategic 5-year cases are stronger than the tactical 12-month cases for all four. Below are the synthesizing theses that frame portfolio positioning across the IDX commodity book.
The base case across coal, CPO, and nickel is range-bound consolidation. Newcastle drifts between $100 and $125 with cost-curve floor at $85–95 and China-import-bust ceiling at $135. Rotterdam CPO drifts $900–1,050 with B40 absorption setting the floor and soybean substitution capping the upside. LME nickel grinds in the $14k–18k range as Indonesian supply expansion outpaces demand growth. Gold sits modestly above $3,000 with central-bank buying defending the floor.
Portfolio implication: in range-bound regimes, single-name alpha dominates commodity beta. Favor lowest-cost producers (Bayan, ITMG, HRUM in coal; SSMS in CPO with certified premium; NCKL/MBMA HPAL in nickel; ARCI unhedged in gold). Avoid highest-leverage names (BUMI in coal; BWPT in CPO) unless explicit bull-thesis position sizing. Trade against the range — buy weakness near the floor, lighten on strength toward the ceiling.
The tactical bull case requires two independent catalysts firing within 90 days per commodity. For coal: China NDRC + India CIL + winter restocking. For CPO: MPOB draw + B50 ramp + India duty cut. For nickel: smelter delay + LME stock cancellation + solid-state acceleration. For gold: Fed surprise + CB >1,200t + geopolitical pulse.
Because the catalysts are independent across commodities, the probability of at least one two-catalyst stack firing somewhere is substantially higher than any single-commodity bull. Sizing implication: hold a basket exposure across all four, not concentration in one. The basket bull case (some catalysts firing somewhere) is roughly 55–65% probability of delivering +12–18% over 12 months — meaningful upside without needing any one commodity to break out.
The strategic case is the dimension the tactical 12-month dashboard understates. Combined structural drivers:
Coal: India + ASEAN power demand growth at 5–7% pa. Indonesian thermal export sustains $90–125 range; cost-curve consolidation favours lowest-cost names.
CPO: B50 + EUDR-compliance premium structurally lift Indonesian planter realized ASP by $30–80/t over 3–5 years.
Nickel: Solid-state battery commercialization (2028–2030) revives high-Ni demand; combined with Indonesian supply growth slowing post-2028 = re-tightening market by 2029–2030.
Gold: Asian CB de-dollarization continues; Indonesian + Indian + Thai reserve targets all sit well below diversification benchmarks. ~50–80t/yr structural buying for the next 5 years.
The modal 5-year Indonesian commodity-equity basket return under stable-growth conditions is roughly +10–14% pa compounded — that's the long-Indonesia commodity anchor that doesn't show up in 12-month touch-probability tables.
The bear cases are not symmetric across the four. Coal has a relatively bounded bear because cost-curve curtailment kicks in below $90 and re-tightens supply within 2–3 quarters. Gold has a relatively bounded bear because central-bank buying provides a price-insensitive floor as long as the cycle continues.
Nickel has the most pronounced bear path: Indonesian supply over-shooting forecast (continued 500kt+/yr capacity adds for 2 more years) combined with LFP share >75% removing EV demand entirely. LME could grind to $12–13k for 12–18 months before solid-state inflection saves the demand side. INCO / MBMA / NCKL would draw down 25–35%.
CPO has the most asymmetric tail: BPDPKS depletion + Brent collapse + B40 mandate stall could release 13mt/yr CPO back to export market in months, pushing Rotterdam to $700–750. AALI / SSMS / DSNG / TAPG would draw 22–30%.
Portfolio implication: bear-protect via underweighting pure-spot nickel exposure (MBMA, NCKL) and using lower-beta blended names (MDKA, INCO) for nickel exposure. For CPO, prefer integrated names (AALI, SIMP) over pure upstream (LSIP, DSNG). Hold gold + coal at higher weight as the bounded-bear cases.
This dashboard uses the same analytical framework as idrtracker.com and idxtracker.com: drifted-GBM barrier-crossing math for thresholds, probability-weighted scenario projection, and a stress-test discipline that names what would invalidate each call. Commodity-specific adjustments: cost-curve floor, term-vs-spot pass-through, DMO / royalty / levy drag, FX translation leg, and listed-name ASP realization gap. Every number below is reproducible from the methodology and the inputs cited in Tracker/commodity_skills/.
b = ln(K/S₀); μ = annualized drift; σ = annualized vol per scenario. Standard barrier-crossing formula for geometric Brownian motion with constant drift. Applied independently per commodity per scenario.
| Commodity | Bull σ | Base σ | Bear σ | 5-year realized σ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle 6,000 | 28% | 22% | 32% | ~26% | Higher in stress; lower in range-bound 2015–2019 |
| Rotterdam CPO | 24% | 20% | 28% | ~22% | El Niño / La Niña overlay; MPOB stocks volatility |
| LME nickel | 32% | 28% | 38% | ~32% | Historically highest σ; Tsingshan squeeze 2022 outlier |
| LBMA gold | 16% | 14% | 22% | ~15% | Lowest σ; CB-buying era smooths |
| Adjustment | Mechanism | Magnitude |
|---|---|---|
| Cost-curve floor | Marginal supply curtails at threshold; price re-tightens within 2–3 quarters | Newcastle ~$85–95; LME nickel ~$13–14k; CPO ~$700–750; gold cost curve not currently binding |
| Term-vs-spot pass-through lag | Term contracts price off trailing reference; ASP moves lag spot | PTBA / ADRO / BUMI 4–8w; ITMG / HRUM / Bayan 1–3w; INCO 2–4w; ANTM 3–5w; AALI/LSIP/SIMP 1–3w |
| DMO / royalty / levy drag | Tiered government take rises with price | Coal royalty 8–13.5%; nickel 4–10%+; CPO BPDPKS levy $0–200/t; gold royalty 3.75% under tiered |
| FX translation leg | USD revenue × IDR translation rate | USD/IDR movement compounds EBITDA in IDR by ~70% of FX move (cost base partial USD-linked) |
| ASP realization gap | Headline benchmark ≠ company-realized price | Newcastle → PTBA ASP gap $35–55/t; Rotterdam CPO → AALI ASP gap $200–230/t; LME nickel → INCO matte ~18% discount |
| Commodity | Bull drift / weight | Base drift / weight | Bear drift / weight | P-weighted 12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | +18% / 27.5% | +2% / 52.5% | −22% / 20% | $114 |
| CPO | +14% / 31.5% | +4% / 47.5% | −18% / 21% | $985 |
| Nickel | +22% / 25% | −3% / 52.5% | −25% / 22.5% | $15,750 |
| Gold | +18% / 37.5% | +6% / 47.5% | −15% / 15% | $3,200 |
| Pre-audit weights. Six-skill audit fires Monday 26 May 2026 09:00 WIB and revises these per stress_test.md. | ||||
| Indicator | Source | Cutoff |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle 6,000 NAR live | ICE settlement (TradingEconomics free tier proxy) | Live on page load |
| ICI tiers + HBA | Ministry of ESDM, Argus Coal Daily | Monthly gazette |
| Rotterdam CPO + BMD | BMD futures + Argus/Reuters Rotterdam quote | Daily real-time |
| MPOB stocks, GAPKI | MPOB monthly bulletin (~10th of month); GAPKI monthly | Monthly with ~30–45d lag |
| LME Nickel 3M | LME settlement, Yahoo Finance proxy | Live on page load |
| NPI / MHP / sulphate | Argus / Fastmarkets indicative | Weekly (paid services) |
| LBMA gold AM/PM fix | LBMA, World Gold Council | Daily |
| CB net buying | WGC quarterly Gold Demand Trends; IMF IFS | Quarterly |
| Antam Logam Mulia | Antam daily quote | Daily |
| Listed-name ASP, royalty, DMO | IDX disclosures quarterly + annual reports | Quarterly + annual |
| Hilirisasi policy gazettes | Berita Negara, ESDM / Kemendag / Kemenkeu | Continuous monitoring |
Tracker/idk/stress_test.md.Tracker/commodity_skills/ — fundamental analyst, equity linkage, per-commodity context (coal, CPO, nickel, gold), hilirisasi policy, trader. Pulled by this dashboard's content.gadai-indonesia-context skill provides the lending channel transmission.This document is research and analysis prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity, futures contract, security, or any other financial instrument, and is not an offer or solicitation of any kind. Forecasts, scenarios, and probability weights are based on assumptions that may not prove accurate; commodity prices, exchange rates, and equity prices can move sharply and unpredictably against any forecast. Indonesian regulatory policy (DMO, royalty/PNBP tiers, BPDPKS levy, hilirisasi rules) is subject to change at short notice and may alter the realized ASP, fiscal take, or producer economics described.
No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the data sources cited; primary data should be verified at source before any decision is made. The authors have no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this material. Consult qualified financial, legal, tax, and commodity-trading professionals before acting on any of the views expressed.